Friday, 30 May 2014

World Cup 2014 Group F Analysis

In a World Cup having a relatively "easy" group can often help a good team get into their groove and gradually improve until they hit top form in the latter stages of the tournament. On the other hand, it can also have negative effects when a team gets too complacent, is surprised by the quality of the opposition and is eliminated much earlier than expected. Argentina has had the pleasure of experiencing both of these extremes in the past. In 1986 they had a fairly easy group and advanced to the knockout stages, Maradona got stronger and stronger as the tournament went on and they were crowned champions. In 2002 however, going into the tournament as favourites and being drawn in a group they were expected to get through from comfortably, they were eliminated. This time around they once again find themselves in a relatively "easy" group which consists of Bosnia, Iran and Nigeria.


Argentina
    Coach: Alejandro Sabella
    Star Player: Lionel Messi
    Tournament Best: Winners 1978, 1986
    How they qualified: CONMEBOL Round Robin Winners

When the World Cup kicks off in Brazil, Lionel Messi will be the same age that Diego Maradona was at the 1986 World Cup. That fact adds even more pressure to an Argentinian side who are expected to get through their group comfortably. Argentina is used to having huge amounts of pressure before and during a World Cup, usually labelled as favourites before the tournament begins. Lots of times all the pressure has proven fatal but this time around they are arguably better prepared than in the past. Since coach Sabella took over three years ago, Argentina has only lost four times. He seems to have found the winning formula.


In attack they look great with the self proclaimed "Fantastic Four" of Messi, Higuain, Aguero and Di Maria going forward. However, Argentina's main problem will be their defense, arguably having the poorest defenders of all the top nations. They will need to focus intensely at the back to make sure they don't commit any silly mistakes, focus will be their key. Argentina also have a tendency to be over reliant on Messi with many questioning whether they have a plan B in the case that he gets injured or is marked out of a match. I expect Argentina to qualify for the knockout stages comfortably but will need to gain a lot of momentum to become champions. If that is the case then Leo Messi will need to play a leading role, not only scoring goals but by controlling matches.


Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Coach: Safet Susic
    Star Player: Edin Dzeko
    Tournament Best: Never previously qualified
    How they qualified: UEFA Group G Winners

Bosnia have qualified for their first World Cup and given the kind draw handed to them they will be looking to impress. Their qualifying campaign was smooth, only losing once in ten matches with Dzeko on fire scoring 10 goals. Bosnia have already named their World Cup squad and the big surprise was the naming of only two recognised strikers. This gives us a bit of insight as to how they will approach their group matches, they will look to pack the midfield, stay compact and play fairly direct to try to find Dzeko up front as quickly as possible. Bosnia won't be looking at playing the most attractive football but could pack a punch as they look to progress to the second round.


In Asmir Begovic they have one of the best goalkeepers in the premier league. Besides him and Dzeko they lack quality though. Their main weakness will be their squad depth and lack of a plan B. They rely way too much on those few star players. They should be able to defeat Iran but will struggle against Argentina who beat them 2-0 as recently as late last year in a friendly. The key match will be against Nigeria, if they can overcome them it will leave them in a good position to qualify for the next round. The lack of quality in the side means that Bosnia will be playing on pure adrenalin and motivation to show the rest of the world that they're not at the World Cup just to make up the numbers.

Iran

    Coach: Carlos Queiroz
    Star Player: Ashkan Dejagah
    Tournament Best: Group Stage 1978, 1998, 2006
    How they qualified: AFC Fourth Round Group A Winners

Iran are an emerging footballing power in Asia, in fact they are the top ranked Asian nation in the tournament. They are also a bit of an unknown in the world stage and will use that to their advantage to try to surprise their opposition. Iran's key player is striker Reza Ghoochannejhad who plays for Charlton in England and scores most of the team's goals. The team relies heavily on a few key players who will have to have the games of their lives if Iran hopes to have any chance of progressing to the knockout stages. One thing they do have is a very experienced coach who can deploy some smart tactics.


Unfortunately Iran are one of the most out of depth nations to qualify for the World Cup. Only a few players on their roster play outside their domestic league, which will hurt them dearly. The players will be hungry for success but they lack the overall quality to impose any threat. Lets be honest here, if they manage to score a goal they will have overachieved. I don't expect Iran to get any points out of their matches, let alone qualify for the second round.


Nigeria

    Coach: Stephen Keshi
    Star Player: Victor Moses
    Tournament Best: Second Round 1994, 1998
    How they qualified: CAF Third Round Winners

After years of disappointment on the world stage, Nigeria heads into Brazil as African champions after winning the 2013 African Cup of Nations. They are full of confidence and have a strong team to back up their hopes of progressing to the knockout rounds. Nigeria are strong all over the park but especially up front with the partnership of Shola Ameobi and Victor Moses who have both been in great form in the past year but also Emanuel Emenike who is lighting up the Turkish league. In midfield you've got the ever present John Mikel Obi who adds valuable experience and composure in the middle of the park. Nigeria perfectly embodies the African style of football, strong, physical, fast, furious and free flowing. 


The key match in this group will be Nigeria vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina, the winner of that will look to progress to the next stage of the tournament as I believe Argentina to be too strong for any other team in the group to take points off them. Unfortunately I can't see Nigeria being able to contain the European style and tactics of Bosnia, which will see them come up just short of getting out of the group. Nigeria have the talent to do well but it will come down to their determination, hunger and focus to get the results.



My Group F Prediction:
1. Argentina  (9 pts)
2. Bosnia and Herzegovina  (6 pts)
3. Nigeria  (3 pts)
4. Iran  (0 pts)
 

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